With the advent of Bing, Microsoft might try to eat the market. I am getting the hibbie-gibbies after thinking about it.
I remember my days before Google. People used to open at least 2 windows for search (Most prominent were Alta Vista, Yahoo and ask jeeves) in Netscape Navigator. We had to keep opening lot of windows as the thing we were looking for might even be on the second page of search results. Since the net was slow, we would be more aggressive about opening as many windows as possible. One top of that, since PCs were few more then one person would use a PC to search.
First Microsoft Killed Netscape.
We were left with IE and we all know the history of IE. The one responsible for most of the viruses around.
Anyway, lets get back to the search engine.
Now, one fine day (after living with the internet for around 2 years), I came to know about Google. I still remember the feeling of the first page. It looked like designed for non-profit by some student because we were used to seeing the popup/ad-filled pages. Since that day, I haven't looked back to any other search engine for serious use. Google was definitely 100 times (i.e. 10,000 %) better than yahoos and altavistas.
Now, Bing comes with hardly -1% to +1% improvement( effectively 0%) and $ 100 M ad budget. I feel that given that budget microsoft can takeover the market. Reason being simple "99% People breathe windows. Windows is their conscience".
What if IE6, IE7 and all the stuff that links to search engine, all points to Bing? And the user find the things which he is looking for on Bing. will anyone care to open google?
No matter how bad MSN Messenger had been, it always had biggest user base. Reason was simple, microsoft forced every one to open an account from inside windows. There are links everywhere (when you run outlook express, netmeeting etc etc.).
MSN live space still claims to have 3rd biggest user base (after myspace and facebook). Did you ever heard about MSN live space? I opened once but never used afterwords.
So, the key point is Microsoft's marketing and control over me could trick me into opening an account but could not hold me longer.
Since for search engine, user has less inertia of change as compared to emails or a social network. There are chances that people who are taken to Bing at least 4-5 times would remain there.
One of the main crowd pullers for Google is Firefox to whom they pay $50m to $66m a year. Can't Microsoft snatch that deal now?
Given all this thought process, I feel that Microsoft will have 50% share in search engine market in 1 year.
So, my question remains to Google, "why didn't you create an OS for a normal user? Why?!"
See, all of the end users of windows suffer. At lest 20% people who are using windows have one problem or the other. An individual has to format his/her windows pc at least once in 3 months. This is based on my 8 years of experience.
I feel there is a huge scope of improvements. I am using Mac for past 1 year and it has been such a breeze. I never looked back.
I have used Linux but it doesn't provide a great UI experience. One has to be at least 10 times better than windows to beat it at this time.
So, My conclusion is this, Unless Google comes up with a search engine which is 10 times better then current Bing or an OS which is 10 times better than windows, it would be difficult to survive.
Disclaimer: This is my personal view point based on the current situation. I can not be held by neck for any of this.